Which weather model is most accurate in Australia?
None of them, every week. ECMWF, GFS, ICON, UKMO and AIFS all have good runs and bad ones, and the model that was right off Sydney last week can be wrong in Bass Strait this week.
The useful question is which model has matched the wind where you are, lately. Shimbiri answers that one. It scores each model’s recent forecast against the wind measured at Bureau of Meteorology stations near the boat, and weights its blend toward the models that have been tracking what the stations measured. It is a short-range check: it tells you who is right now, not who will be right in a week.
Where the models disagree, read the spread rather than one line. At Flinders Island on 15 September 2026 the models said about 20 knots; Shimbiri’s own instruments measured 41 to 42. The boat’s instruments and the nearest station are the truth the models are scored against.
The Weather Officer holds the global model runs, names any run that is out of date, and weights the blend by how closely each model has matched the wind measured at nearby Bureau stations. Waves are weighted equally, because no model has yet been scored against measured wave heights.
General information for Australian operators, current as of 6 October 2026. Rules change and recreational rules vary by state. Always confirm against the source(s) linked above (your AMSA, Australian Sailing or state maritime authority). This is not legal advice.